Electricity demand in the UK will increase by a factor 2.5 by 2050 compared to today’s levels, and require, 250 GW of new generation capacity, mainly offshore wind and solar, to support the UK’s net-zero ambitions.

DNV forecast that, therefore, the UK will not meet its legally binding Net Zero by 2050 target and will also fall short of its Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) commitment for 2030 under the Paris Agreement. The nation will miss its net-zero ambitions but will achieve an 85 per cent reduction from 1990 levels by 2050, with significant emissions from the buildings and transport sector still impeding overall success.

The calculation comes in the first edition of DNV’s UK Energy Transition Outlook (ETO) 2022 that highlights that the nation will see a significant shift in electricity generation away from fossil fuels towards variable renewable energy sources (VRES), which will be supplying three-quarters of total electricity in 2050 compared to only a quarter today.

The report also predicts that the UK's primary energy supply will shift away from fossil fuels to low carbon sources from only 20 per cent low carbon sources today to 70 per cent by 2050.

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